Risk Management Analysis Using the PAVE Checklist
使用PAVE检查单的风险管理分析
2024.10.25
By incorporating the PAVE checklist into preflight planning, the pilot divides the risks of flight into four categories: Pilot-in-command (PIC), Aircraft, enVironment, and External pressures (PAVE) which form part of a pilot’s decision making process.
在飞行前计划中使用PAVE检查单，飞行员可将飞行中的风险分为四个部分：飞行员、飞机、环境、外部压力 （PAVE），PAVE检查单是飞行员决策过程的重要组成部分。
Once a pilot identifies the risks of a flight, he or she needs to decide whether the risk, or combination of risks, can be managed safely and successfully. If not, make the decision to cancel the flight. If the pilot decides to continue with the flight, he or she should develop strategies to mitigate the risks. One way a pilot can control the risks is to set personal minimums for items in each risk category. These are limits unique to that individual pilot’s current level of experience and proficiency.
一旦飞行员识别出飞行中的风险，他或她需要确认自己能否安全，成功地管理这些风险或这些风险的组合。若不能，就应决定取消飞行。如果飞行员决定继续飞行，他或她应当制定减轻风险的策略。例如有一种控制风险的方法是为每种风险都设定一个个人最低标准。这些标准是基于飞行员当前经验和熟练程度所设置的个人限制。
One of the most important concepts that safe pilots understand is the difference between what is “legal” in terms of the regulations, and what is “smart” or “safe” in terms of pilot experience and proficiency.
谨慎的飞行员都理解的一个最重要的概念是：规定层面上的“合规”，与飞行员经验和熟练程度层面上的“明智”或“安全”之间的区别。
For example, the aircraft may have a maximum crosswind component of 15 knots listed in the aircraft flight manual (AFM), and the pilot has experience with 10 knots of direct crosswind. It could be unsafe to exceed a 10 knot crosswind component without additional training. Therefore, the 10 knot crosswind experience level is that pilot’s personal limitation until additional training with a certificated flight instructor (CFI) provides the pilot with additional experience for flying in crosswinds that exceed 10 knots.
例如，飞机飞行手册（AFM）上列出了飞机的极限侧风分量为 15 节，但飞行员的侧风飞行经验为 10 节。在没有额外训练的情况下，超出 10 节的侧风分量可能会有危险。因此，这位飞行员的个人极限是 10 节，直到通过授权教员（CFI）的额外训练，从而获得应对超过 10 节的侧风的经验。
P = Pilot in Command (PIC) P = 飞行员
The pilot is one of the risk factors in a flight. The pilot must ask, “Am I ready for this trip?” in terms of experience, recency, currency, physical, and emotional condition. The IMSAFE checklist provides the answers.
飞行员是飞行中的风险因素之一。飞行员应当询问自己：“我是否为这次飞行做好了准备？” 这包括飞行经验、近期飞行记录、有效飞行资格、身体状况和情绪状态。IMSAFE 检查单可提供参考。
A = Aircraft A = 飞机
What limitations will the aircraft impose upon the trip? Ask the following questions: 飞机在旅途中将遇到什么限制？遵循如下问题：
1.
Is this the right aircraft for the flight? 这是要飞的飞机吗？
2.
Am I familiar with and current in this aircraft? Aircraft performance figures and the AFM are based on a brand new aircraft flown by a professional test pilot. Keep that in mind while assessing personal and aircraft performance. 我是否熟悉这架飞机并且有有效飞行资格？飞机的性能数据和飞机飞行手册（AFM）是基于由专业试飞员驾驶全新飞机得出的，在评估个人和飞机的性能时，请牢记这一点。
3.
Is this aircraft equipped for the flight? Instruments? Lights? Navigation and communication equipment adequate? 这架飞机的设备是否满足飞行要求？仪表？灯光？导航和通讯设备是否满足要求？
4.
Can this aircraft use the runways available for the trip with an adequate margin of safety under the conditions to be flown? 这架飞机使用的跑道是否能在飞行条件下满足安全裕度？
5.
Can this aircraft carry the planned load? 这架飞机是否能承载计划载重？
6.
Can this aircraft operate at the altitudes needed for the trip? 这架飞机是否能在飞行中要求的高度上运行？
7.
Does this aircraft have sufficient fuel capacity, with reserves, for trip legs planned? 这架飞机是否能承载足够的燃油，并且有足够的备用燃油，以完成计划飞行航段？
8.
Does the fuel quantity delivered match the fuel quantity ordered? 飞机的实际加油量与报告的加油量是否一致？
V = EnVironment V = 环境
Weather 天气
Weather is a major environmental consideration. Earlier it was suggested pilots set their own personal minimums, especially when it comes to weather. As pilots evaluate the weather for a particular flight, they should consider the following: 天气是环境的一个重要参考项，在行业早期，在环境方面，尤其是在天气方面，建议飞行员设定属于自己的最低标准，当飞行员做天气评估时，应当参考下面内容：
1.
What is the current ceiling and visibility? In mountainous terrain, consider having higher minimums for ceiling and visibility, particularly if the terrain is unfamiliar. 当前云底高和能见度是多少？在山脉地形，尤其是在不熟悉地形的条件下，应考虑提高云底高和能见度最低要求。
2.
Consider the possibility that the weather may be different than forecast. Have alternative plans and be ready and willing to divert, should an unexpected change occur. 考虑实际天气与预报天气不一致的可能性，制定预备计划并做好备降的准备，预防非预期的变化出现。
3.
Consider the winds at the airports being used and the strength of the crosswind component. 将机场的风，以及侧风分量的强度纳入考虑。
4.
If flying in mountainous terrain, consider whether there are strong winds aloft. Strong winds in mountainous terrain can cause severe turbulence and downdrafts and be very hazardous for aircraft even when there is no other significant weather. 如果在山地飞行，考虑山地上空是否有会强风。山地区域的强风会导致强烈的湍流和下降气流，尽管可能没有 其他的明显天气，其依然严重危害飞行安全。
5.
Are there any thunderstorms present or forecast? 是否存在或预报有雷暴？
6.
If there are clouds, is there any icing, current or forecast? What is the temperature/dew point spread and the current temperature at altitude? Can descent be made safely all along the route? 如果有云，云中是否存在或预报有积冰？在飞行高度上的温度露点差和当前温度是多少？在整个航路上是否都能安全的下降高度？
7.
If icing conditions are encountered, is the pilot experienced at operating the aircraft’s deicing or anti-icing equipment? Is this equipment in good condition and functional? For what icing conditions is the aircraft rated, if any? 如果遇到结冰情况，飞行员是否有操作飞机除冰或防冰设备的经验？这些设备是否处于良好状态并能正常工作？如果有的话，飞机被审定为可以应对哪些结冰条件？
Terrain 地形
Evaluation of terrain is another important component of analyzing the flight environment. 地形评估也是分析飞行环境的重要一环。
1.
To avoid terrain and obstacles, especially at night or in low visibility, determine safe altitudes in advance by using the altitudes shown on VFR and IFR charts during preflight planning. 为了避开地形和障碍物，尤其是在夜间或低能见度的条件下，要在飞行前计划时，通过目视飞行规则航图和仪表飞行规则航图上标注的高度，提前确定安全高度。
2.
Use maximum elevation figures (MEFs) and other easily obtainable data to minimize chances of an inflight collision with terrain or obstacles. 使用最大高程图和其他易取得的数据，以最大程度避免飞行中与地形或障碍物相撞。
Airport 机场
1.
What lights are available at the destination and alternate airports? VASI/PAPI or ILS glideslope guidance? Is the terminal airport equipped with them? Are they working? Will the pilot need to use the radio to activate the airport lights? 在目的地或备降机场，可用的灯光有哪些？目视进近坡度指示器/精密进近航道指示器或盲降下滑道指引？目的地机场是否有这些设备？ 他们是否正常工作？飞行员是否需要使用无线电来激活机场的灯光？
2.
Check the Notices to Airmen (NOTAM) for closed runways or airports. Look for runway or beacon lights out, nearby towers, etc. 查看航行通告中是否有关闭的跑道或机场，是否有跑道灯或信标灯不工作，附近的塔台，等等。
3.
Choose the flight route wisely. An engine failure gives the nearby airports supreme importance. 灵活选取飞行航路，发动机失效的情况下，附近的机场变得极为重要。
3.
Choose the flight route wisely. An engine failure gives the nearby airports supreme importance. 灵活选取飞行航路，发动机失效的情况下，附近的机场变得极为重要。
4.
Are there shorter or obstructed fields at the destination and/or alternate airports? 在目的地和/或备降机场是否有较短或受阻的跑道？
Airspace 空域
1.
If the trip is over remote areas, is there appropriate clothing, water, and survival gear onboard in the event of a forced landing? 如果飞行经过偏远地区，机上是否有应对迫降的衣物，水，以及生存工具？
2.
If the trip includes flying over water or unpopulated areas with the chance of losing visual reference to the horizon, the pilot must be prepared to fly IFR. 如果飞行经过水面或无人区时，有失去地平线目视参考的可能性，飞行员必须做好按仪表飞行规则飞行的准备。
3.
Check the airspace and any temporary flight restriction (TFRs) along the route of flight. 查看空域，以及任何飞行航路附近的临时飞行限制区（TFRs）。
Nighttime 夜航
1.
If the trip includes flying at night over water or unpopulated areas with the chance of losing visual reference to the horizon, the pilot must be prepared to fly IFR. 如果飞行经过水面或无人区时，有失去地平线目视参考的可能性，飞行员必须做好按仪表飞行规则飞行的准备。
2.
Will the flight conditions allow a safe emergency landing at night? 飞行条件是否能满足在夜间安全的进行紧急着陆？
3.
Perform preflight check of all aircraft lights, interior and exterior, for a night flight. Carry at least two flashlights—one for exterior preflight and a smaller one that can be dimmed and kept nearby. 航前检查所有飞机用于夜航的内部和外部灯光。携带至少两个手电筒-一个用于航前外部检查，另一个小一点的要有可调亮度并放在容易取得的地方。
E = External Pressures E = 外部压力
External pressures are influences external to the flight that create a sense of pressure to complete a flight—often at the expense of safety. Factors that can be external pressures include the following: 外部压力是一种从飞行之外而来的，为了完成飞行任务而产生的压力-通常牺牲安全为代价。外部压力因素如下：
1.
Someone waiting at the airport for the flight’s arrival. 有人在机场等待飞机到达。
2.
A passenger the pilot does not want to disappoint. 飞行员不想让某位旅客失望。
3.
The desire to demonstrate pilot qualifications. 渴望展示飞行员的能力。
4.
The desire to impress someone (Probably the two most dangerous words in aviation are “Watch this!”). 渴望使人印象深刻（在民航中最危险的两个字莫过于“看好！”）。
5.
The desire to satisfy a specific personal goal (“gethome-itis,” “get-there-itis,” and “let’s-go-itis”) 渴望满足某种特殊的个人目的（“急于回家”，“急于去某处”，“急于出发”）
6.
The pilot’s general goal-completion orientation. 飞行员群体中普遍存在的完成目标的倾向。
7.
Emotional pressure associated with acknowledging that skill and experience levels may be lower than a pilot would like them to be. Pride can be a powerful external factor! 承认自己的技能和经验水平可能低于预期所带来的情感压力。自尊心可以成为一个强大的外部因素！
Managing External Pressures 管理外部压力
Management of external pressure is the single most important key to risk management because it is the one risk factor category that can cause a pilot to ignore all the other risk factors. External pressures put time-related pressure on the pilot and figure into a majority of accidents. 外部压力的管理是风险管理中最重要一环，因为这一类风险因素能使飞行员无视所有其他的风险因素。外部压力对飞行员施加与时间相关的压力，是大多数事故的成因。 The use of personal standard operating procedures (SOPs) is one way to manage external pressures. The goal is to supply a release for the external pressures of a flight. These procedures include but are not limited to: 使用个性化的标准操作程序（SOPs）是管理外部压力的一种方式。目的是减轻飞行中的外部压力。这些程序包括但不限于：
1.
Allow time on a trip for an extra fuel stop or to make an unexpected landing because of weather. 允许自己在途中花时间加油或因天气做计划外的着陆。
2.
Have alternate plans for a late arrival or make backup airline reservations for must-be-there trips. 为未按时抵达做备用计划，或为必须抵达的飞行准备备用航线。
3.
For really important trips, plan to leave early enough so that there would still be time to drive to the destination, if necessary. 对于非常重要的飞行任务，如果必要，做好比预定时间早足够的时间出发的计划，这样就有足够的时间飞向目的地。
4.
Advise those who are waiting at the destination that the arrival may be delayed. Know how to notify them when delays are encountered. 通知在目的地等候的人员延误的消息。知道如何在延误时通知他们。
5.
Manage passengers’ expectations. Make sure passengers know that they might not arrive on a firm schedule, and if they must arrive by a certain time, they should make alternative plans. 管理乘客的心理预期，确保乘客了解他们可能无法按时抵达，如果乘客自己必须按时抵达，他们应该做好自己的备用计划。
6.
Eliminate pressure to return home, even on a casual day flight, by carrying a small overnight kit containing prescriptions, contact lens solutions, toiletries, or other necessities on every flight. 通过在每次飞行时携带一个包含处方药、隐形眼镜护理液、洗漱用品或其他必需品的小型过夜包，消除即便是日常飞行也急于返家的压力。
The key to managing external pressure is to be ready for and accept delays. Remember that people get delayed when traveling on airlines, driving a car, or taking a bus. The pilot’s goal is to manage risk, not create hazards. 管理外部压力的关键是准备好应对延误。记住人们通过无论是坐飞机，开车，坐大巴，都会遇到延误。飞行员的目的是管理风险，而不是制造危险。
As shown in Figure 1-1, the acronym “PAVE” represents hazards that relate to the pilot, the aircraft, the environment, and external pressures. The sample analysis below describes how PAVE items may relate to the accident.
如图1-1，缩略语“PAVE”代表与飞行员，飞机，环境和外部压力有关的危险。下面的案例分析展示PAVE所包含的项目与事故的关联。
图1-1 The PAVE Checklist-PAVE检查单
The pilot reported to air traffic control (ATC) that the vacuum pump failed while in visual meteorological conditions (VMC). As a result, the attitude indicator and directional gyro became inoperative. Rather than divert to an airport while in VMC, the pilot decided to continue toward the destination and into instrument meteorological conditions (IMC). This elevated the risks associated with an “A” hazard because of the inoperative instruments and a “V” hazard because of the IMC. After the vacuum pump failure, the pilot communicated with ATC that IMC would not be a problem, which may indicate a hazardous attitude or “P” hazard. It is unknown if an external pressure or “E” hazard factored in the pilot’s apparent desire to get to the destination.
飞行员在目视气象条件（VMC）下向空中交通管制（ATC）报告真空泵故障。其故障导致姿态指示器和方向陀螺仪无法正常工作。 尽管如此，飞行员并没有在VMC条件下选择备降，而是决定继续朝目的地飞行，飞入仪表气象条件（IMC）。由于仪表无法正常工作， 增加了与“A”类危险相关的风险，而IMC的存在又增加了与“V”类危险相关的风险。在真空泵故障后，飞行员与ATC沟通表示 IMC不会成为问题，这可能表明飞行员存在一种危险态度，或叫“P”类危险。目前尚不清楚是否有外部压力，或叫“E”类危险因素影响 了飞行员，从而做出这种显然急于到达目的地的决定。
In this case, the pilot had the opportunity to change the outcome of the flight by diverting to an airport while still in VMC. Several reasons explain why pilots do not make appropriate decisions. Pilot error often results from an over-estimate of capability, a lack of preparation for flight, or a failure to prioritize safety. Varying levels of risk tolerance, or even intentional disregard of risk, may be a factor.
在这个案例中，飞行员本有机会通过转向另一个机场来改变飞行结果，当时他仍处于目视气象条件（VMC）下。 有几个原因可以解释为什么飞行员没有做出恰当的决定。飞行员错误通常源于对自己能力的高估、缺乏飞行准备， 或者未能优先考虑安全，不同程度的风险容忍度，甚至故意无视风险，也可能是因素之一。
Risk management training includes a variety of measures that change the way pilots perceive and deal with hazards both before and during a flight. This section emphasized using risk management as a process to avoid situations and decisions that might lead to an aircraft accident.
风险管理培训包括一系列改变飞行员在飞行前和飞行中对危险的感知和应对方式的措施。此部分内容强调使用风险管理作为一种流程，以避免导致航空事故的情况和决策。
Poor risk management is a cause of many accidents. Accordingly, pilots should emphasize risk management in all types of operations, from recreational flying to using aircraft for business.
风险管理不足是许多事故的原因，因此，飞行员在任何运行中都应当重视风险管理，无论是休闲飞行还是商业飞行。
参考文献：FAA Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge 8083-25B, risk_management_handbook_2A